FightTruth — MMA. Smarter. Data-driven.

FIGHTTRUTH · v1.0 · NOW IN BETA

MMA.
SMARTER.
DATA-DRIVEN.

Every fighter, every fight, every line. The model has tracked 9,359 bouts across 21,130 fighters. Find the edge before the book does.

Open Fight Picks →Run a simulation

9,359
BOUTS TRACKED
21,130
FIGHTERS RATED
67.2%
MAIN-EVENT HITS

LIVE · MAIN EVENT● MODEL ACTIVE
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · JUN 06, 2026 · LAS VEGAS
Muhammad
24–5 · Welterweight
-120
MONEYLINE
VS
Bonfim
19–1 · Welterweight
+103
MONEYLINE
MODEL · WIN PROB.HIGH CONFIDENCE · XGBOOST
9.4%90.6%

02 · MODEL VS BOOK

FIND THE EDGE
BEFORE
THE BOOK DOES.

Every fight, our model produces a true probability and an implied price. We mark every disagreement with the consensus line. VALUE marks fights where our edge exceeds 5% — sized with half-Kelly for optimal allocation.

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. BonfimSat, Jun 6, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA13 FIGHTS WITH ODDS

FIGHTER A
CLASS
FIGHTER B
MODEL PREDICTION

Belal Muhammad-120

24W 5L · FT 4.355% implied

WELTERWEIGHT

VALUE+103Gabriel Bonfim

49% implied19W 1L · FT 4.4

9.4%HIGH90.6%

● BETTING CARD8 PICKS · HALF-KELLY · 100u BANKROLL

73.6u TOTAL

PICK
ODDS
MODEL
IMPLIED
EDGE
UNITS (½ KELLY)

Gabriel Bonfim

+103

90.6%

49.3%

+41.3%

10.0u

John Yannis

+393

47.1%

20.3%

+26.8%

10.0u

Bryce Mitchell

-212

86.9%

67.9%

+19.0%

10.0u

Matt Schnell

+546

30.5%

15.5%

+15.0%

8.9u

Jordan Leavitt

+173

49.2%

36.6%

+12.6%

9.9u

Ariane Carnelossi

+250

40.2%

28.6%

+11.6%

8.1u

Iwo Baraniewski

-383

90.3%

79.3%

+11.0%

10.0u

Bryce Mitchell

-139

63.7%

58.2%

+5.5%

6.6u

Brendan Allen-222

26W 7L · FT 4.469% implied

MIDDLEWEIGHT

+186Edmen Shahbazyan

35% implied16W 5L · FT 3.3

70.6%HIGH29.4%

Fares Ziam-328

18W 4L · FT 3.977% implied

LIGHTWEIGHT

+267Tom Nolan

27% implied5W 2L · FT 2.9

71.1%HIGH28.9%

Bryce Mitchell-139VALUE

18W 3L · FT 3.558% implied

BANTAMWEIGHT

+119Santiago Luna

46% implied8W 0L · FT 2.6

63.7%MEDIUM36.3%

Bryce Mitchell-212VALUE

18W 3L · FT 3.568% implied

BANTAMWEIGHT

+179Victor Henry

36% implied25W 7L · FT 3.1

86.9%HIGH13.1%

Matt Schnell+546VALUE

17W 10L · FT 2.115% implied

—

-760Alessandro Costa

88% implied15W 5L · FT 2.5

30.5%HIGH69.5%

Iwo Baraniewski-383VALUE

8W 0L · FT 4.279% implied

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT

+308Junior Tafa

25% implied7W 5L · FT 1.8

90.3%HIGH9.7%

Marcus McGhee-508

10W 2L · FT 2.984% implied

BANTAMWEIGHT

VALUE+393John Yannis

20% implied10W 4L · FT 2.2

52.9%LOW47.1%

Chelsea Chandler-120

6W 4L · FT 1.955% implied

BANTAMWEIGHT

+103Priscila Cachoeira

49% implied13W 8L · FT 1.9

54.8%LOW45.2%

Matt Schnell+775

17W 10L · FT 2.111% implied

FLYWEIGHT

-1219Imanol Rodriguez

92% implied7W 0L · FT 4.1

10.8%HIGH89.1%

Jordan Leavitt+173VALUE

13W 3L · FT 3.537% implied

FEATHERWEIGHT

-205Joanderson Brito

67% implied17W 5L · FT 3.6

49.2%LOW50.8%

Jeisla Chaves-391

7W 0L · FT 2.780% implied

FLYWEIGHT

+313Yuneisy Duben

24% implied6W 1L · FT 1.8

75.6%MEDIUM24.4%

Ketlen Souza-305

16W 5L · FT 2.675% implied

STRAWWEIGHT

VALUE+250Ariane Carnelossi

29% implied15W 4L · FT 2.7

59.8%MEDIUM40.2%

FREE ACCOUNT REQUIRED

FULL KELLY = 2× SHOWNMIN EDGE: 5%MAX BET: 10u

UPDATED · BEST AVAILABLE MONEYLINES VIA BESTFIGHTODDS.COMOPEN FULL ODDS BOARD →

03 · AI POUND-FOR-POUND

THE RANKINGS
WITHOUT THE
POLITICS.

Updated after every fight. Our model weighs strength of schedule, finishing rate, recency, and competition level. No promoter agendas. No Twitter polls.